August 2024 Career News

What a week to write about the labor market and economy. 😵‍💫

Where do we start? This isn’t going to be a shortie…. 

Yes, the numbers were down last month. 

Yes, global markets reacted (very important word). 

Yes, unemployment went up.

Things may be slowing down, and that’s to be expected with the higher interest rates the Fed is holding on to to curb inflation—which is down to the goal of about 3% in June, by the way; that’s a small win.

An economic slowdown doesn’t necessarily signal a crash. We are not on the brink of, or in a Recession, even if that’s what the doomsday headlines, over half of Americans, and overreacting markets want us to think. 

A Recession occurs when a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreases; it contracts. 

Here in the U.S., we continue to see growth: 1.4% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q2, despite high inflation. 

Predictions for 2025 show GDP growth of 1.7%, which may be cooler than what we’ve seen for the past few years, but it is still growth, not contraction. Just because something is growing at a slower rate than it was before doesn’t mean it’s failing, falling, or crashing.

There’s an economic lesson to apply to life, eh? 

Back to the numbers. 

Luckily, we saw some rebound from the knee-jerk reaction of Monday’s market roller coaster, and I suspect that’s because the world took a step back and looked at the bigger picture – just like we do here.

If only these people read my newsletter.  😏

I like to look at longer-term trends, so I got into my DeLorian and checked out 2019 numbers. If you’ve been following along with me for awhile, you know I like 2019 as a baseline comparison. It’s about as apples-to-apples as we’re going to get now that we’re past the “before days” and into a new long-term economic outlook. 

July is notoriously a slow month for new job creation because, well-summer. 

In 2019, there were 164k new jobs created (for fun, I went back to 2018: 157k), so it isn’t like we’re off by 99% here, folks. If anything, we could look at the 185k projection as an overshot, and we fell short. I realize that might be a little too glass-half-full, but stick with me…

The real story will come when we see what happens in August. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a little higher than predicted to balance out what didn’t end up being created in July. I find that if you look at a rolling three-month snapshot, you end up seeing a “conservation of job creation” trend that averages out to meet the forecasts. 

It’s like a sale converting on August 1 instead of July 31st; it’s still money in the bank, it just gets booked in a different month. 

Additionally, the unemployment rate can be very misleading if you don’t dig deeper because the lion’s share of that gradual increase is due to new job seekers entering the workforce and not an abnormal amount of layoffs.

In short, we are not in a pit of despair. 

We’re also not in a field of roses, so let’s just be real about that. The job market is challenging; we know it, and I’ve talked about it ad-nauseam in Career News this year, but as you know, I always find the silver lining. 

Ready for this month’s silver lining?

There’s an uptick in software engineering recruitment!

Whoooo hoooo!

I’ve seen a TON of activity in the past six weeks, which is why I was surprised to see a lower-than-predicted jobs report. Interviews have been coming fast and furious, compared to a year ago, and while the processes are still moving slower than we’d like, the number of clients who landed new jobs in June and July out-totals the rest of the year combined!

When a client forwarded me an email talking about the unexpected spike in tech hiring, I got all excited: I’m not the only one seeing it! Yippee! 

Candidates are seeing an increase in interview requests, which have gone from 2-3 per month to 2-3 per week. Companies of all levels are hiring again, as we’ve had clients interview everywhere, from Airbnb, Netflix, and Instacart to no-name start-ups that are more confident in their funding. 

What’s more interesting is that while job searches are taking longer, especially for tech professionals who are wrapping their heads around campaigns that take 6 months instead of 6 weeks, the outcomes are strong. 

Companies are hiring for fit, and they’re getting it. So are you!

While “worth the wait” may seem like a consolation prize, I’m seeing it as a true part of some awesome job search outcomes that may have taken a while to achieve but come with longevity, growth potential, and some awesome comp packages. 

Bring it to a close.

As I mentioned, this ain’t the month for a short newsletter, and while I can keep going on, I’ll wrap it up.

We can’t do anything about the market, the global economy’s reaction to the market, or the inflation rate. 

👉 Focus on what you can control and let go of what you can’t.

Things you can control: how you market yourself, who you network with, how you prepare for interviews, and how you evaluate opportunities. 

Things you cannot control: unemployment rates, competitors in the job market or interviews, speed of hiring processes, economic forecasts, shifts, changes…you get the drift. 

There is power in recognizing what’s within your grasp versus what extends beyond it. Expending energy to controllable actions and outcomes not only feels better, but it helps you adapt, stay resilient, and stay the course no matter what comes your way. 

If there’s anything we take from this week’s market yo-yo, let it be focus. 

Stay well!