What’s REALLY Happening Out There?
July Career News: Our perspective on the recession and inflation.
While the words inflation and recession seem to be part of every conversation I’ve had recently, there are some interesting – and positive – things happening out there in the hiring market that should keep your spirits high.
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released their June jobs report at the end of last week, and guess what?
Another nearly 400,000 jobs were added to payroll and unemployment remained at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row!
This is good news. Steady hiring and unemployment show confidence in the market, and what’s even more encouraging about the activity in June is that notable job gains were observed in professional and business services and healthcare, in addition to leisure and hospitality, which has seen consistent increases in hiring since we went back to (our new) “normal.”
In particular, job growth occurred in corporate management, technology design and engineering, and scientific R&D, and administrative services. In other words, there’s strong hiring across all areas of the corporate landscape, including R&D, which means companies are investing in their own growth, and as usual – STEM companies and careers are solid, solid, solid. Of note, there were almost a million more professional and business services jobs created last month than in February of 2020 (before the world changed; that’s huge!).
As far as my observations with clients, I’m seeing these statistics in real life. We continue to have strong interviewing and a high quantity of it, even if we are in the middle of a typical summer slump where processes take a little longer as hiring managers navigate summer vacations and kids out of school.
We’ve seen a few layoffs, which have made big headlines, but it hasn’t been as widespread as some doomsday predictions. In my opinion, companies should be cautious when making these reactively proactive layoffs or they’re going to cause a recession and be the self-fulfilling prophecy none of us want.
I was listening to a great story on NPR last week about how recessions are defined – and how the labor market plays a role in that. The classic definition of a recession is two quarters of decline in the GDP (gross domestic product), and well, folks, we’re there.
That said, we almost need to be there if we ever want a gallon of gas to cost less than a gallon of organic, pasture-raised, cows milk. I mean, I remember being a kid and telling mom I’d throw 5-bucks in after borrowing the car for a day.
That’d get you down the block today.
Anyway, what’s interesting about qualifying recessions is that modern economists now refer to the labor market as a better indicator of recessions. Recent history shows that a recession almost always follows a three-month increase of at least half a percentage in unemployment rates.
With consistent job growth and stable unemployment, the general consensus when it comes to a recession is – we aren’t there yet!
I’ll stop playing economist; that was fun, wasn’t it? And tell you this – ride the wave as long as it lasts. The surf’s still up! If you paddle in and put your board away now, you might miss the “Big Kahuna” that’s right around the corner waiting to take your career to the next level. Keep at it!*Bonus if you can name the movie that reference is from!
Your Friend and Coach,